DHUnplugged #660: Exuberance

bank earnings are out – same pattern as usual. China economy slipping further. Oil prices coming up as summer disruptions hit pipelines. Massive raises in the airline sector – 40%. At the same time, Ford slashing prices. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? <br /> <br /> <br /> Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up<br /> - Bank Earnings - Friday the usual<br /> - Markets Trying very hard to stay positive - key analyst upgrades<br /> - Toffee Pretzels with Old Bay - Client Sent me a batch - McAllens Best Toffee  (reasonably priced too!)<br /> - Big price hikes and bigger price cuts<br /> - M&A - Microsoft deal makes DOJ look silly and may pave way for more activity<br /> - A look at a very bad stock chart - you probably won't believe the company<br /> Market Update<br /> - China economics - from bad to worse (what happened to that re-opening trade?)<br /> - All about AI - wait to hear in the next batch of earnings reports<br /> - Luxury firms feeling the heat after China's poor eco readings<br /> - Technicals - MOMO and FOMO - Ahead of Earnings<br /> - Clearly some excess exuberance in markets ECO<br /> - Two-year U.S. inflation expectations embedded in the Treasury market fell as low as 1.88% on Friday and held at 1.90% on Monday, well below the Fed's 2% target.<br /> - Surveys showing surging U.S. household confidence in June, as real wage growth turns positive and jobs remain plentiful, saw a hesitation in interest rate markets on Friday as Fed officials enter a blackout period before the July 26 decision.<br /> - Crude moving higher (this week it was because of supply disruptions and OPEC cuts)<br /> - Bets are that Fed will increase by 0.25% next week and probably be done. (Even though they are strutting around still talking about at least 2 more hikes and no thoughts about a cut anytime soon.<br /> - USD lowest level against a basket of currencies since April 2022 (also showing that expectations are for a Fed to chill out)<br /> ---10Y Treasuries - Down from triple top near 4.10% to 3.8% Retail Sales<br /> - Total retail sales in Jun