Stainless Boom Buoys Nickel Despite China Growth Fears

Nickel dropped down to the bottom end of $20-$22,000 range that we’ve largely been in since the beginning of May – dragged lower along with the rest of the base metal complex as China deflation concerns weighed on the market.  LME inventories are still low.According to statistics from the Stainless Steel Branch of China Iron and Steel Association, China’s crude stainless steel production amounted to around 17.59 million tons in the first half of this year, up by 8.2% compared to the same period a year ago.  Among them, the output of Cr-Ni stainless steel (300 series) accounted for the largest proportion at 50.33%, totalling around 8.85 million tons, a year-on-year hike of 11.1%.  (we thought China was slowing down) - seeing cuts in the first half in ROW production after a big surge in 2021/22, but now seeing a turn in the West as well.  Analysts always underestimate stainless growth. Still not seeing any further momentum in nickel sulphate in China, but seeing more nickel directly utilized (in the form of MHP/matte) and more high nickel cathode material produced in Korea.FPX Nickel saw a big drop this week – down by 33% on news that one of the First Nations (FN) groups has made public communications from Tl’azt’en Nation with respect to the 2012 Memorandum of Understanding (“MoU”) between Tl’azt’en Nation, family Keyoh Holders, and FPX, and concerns expressed related to resource development.The team at FPX have done a very good job responsibly advancing the project, but sometimes best efforts can’t change the view of the local community.  The original 2012 group split into several groups – which may have different views on resource development. Elections in FN communities typically every 2-3 years so can have multiple leadership groups to deal with during the lifespan of the project (think with my old Dumont project, we had 5 different chiefs over 10 years).  The new chief came in a year ago and may be a catalyst for change, maybe another change in the future.Permitting/First Nations risk is real – even the best management team/approach can do everything 100% right, but the community may not want resource development. Encourage every investor to look at First Nations/permitting risk – not just to country, province, but the specific region – look at whether any mines operating in the area, have any operated before, and search for public comments on mining activity in the area. Can always be the first new mine in an area, but comes with lots of risks and need to manage accordingly.This is always been a key concern – 4 major assets that I’ve been involved with have been in established mining areas - Abitibi Quebec (Dumont), Abitibi area of Ontario (Crawford), Kalgoorlie (Beta Hunt), Manitoba/Snow Lake (Reed).  The Metals Company (TMC) stock has moved significantly higher over the last 2 months and just completed $27 million financing (think highlighted back in June that smaller scale start-up using existing Japanese processing capacity provides a lower capex path to production).  The Metals Company aims to apply next year for a licence to start mining in the Pacific Ocean, with production expected to start as early as the fourth quarter of 2025, it said in a statement.Magna Mining put out some nice drill holes this AM and has been busy retracing about 50% of what it gave up after the PEA announcement.
101 FW ZoneMCR-23-041: 3.0% Ni, 0.7% Cu, 1.2 g/t Pt + Pd + Au over 31.6 metresMCR-23-042: 4.2% Ni, 1.4% Cu, 1.0 g/t Pt + Pd + Au over 27.6 metresGood results but would asterisk them a little bit – when historic drilling – look for step out versus infill, unless filling in some pretty wide gaps.  These holes look like in between 22-003 and 22-005 drilled earlier this year which in turn were between 1003080 and 1003090 and 1163050
At the other end of step out level, our neighbour in Timmins, Aston Minerals, has started off their 2023 drilling season