Not Enough Nickel to Meet Demand says Korean Battery Manufacturer

Nickel had another test of $20,000 and once again it held up and trading in the lower end of range of $20-$22,000 range where it has been sitting since early June. Again, have been expecting several month break below this range but this has yet to happen – trend technically squeezing against this support level and with now seeing some LME inflows (still not much 1,000 tonnes) may finally go through in the next few weeks.Have seen continued improvements in ore and NPI prices driven by combination of a couple of factors: Chinese stainless production continues strong y-o-y growth – 17-20% in August and September Nickel has had a “shipping coal to Newcatle” moment recently as the Indonesian government investigated and dealt with illegal nickel ores and stopped the approval of new quota applications which has resulted in ore coming from the Philippines Korea trip again interesting. Key piece is how much nickel they will need – just
one of the players at one stage - and there are multiple players at each step (precursor-cathode-battery) will need more nickel.Indonesia talking about a free trade agreement with the US (make it IRA-eligible) – may see something limited, but Chinese control of most assets would defeat the whole purpose of the IRA to get China out of critical material supply chains.Nickel Institute published clarification around CBAM in Europe (Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism) – this is a mechanism which will eventually create a premium for lower carbon products (like Canada Nickel will be producing from Crawford).From 1st October 2023, FeNi and NPI producers will have to measure the carbon footprint of their products according to the requirements defined in the Annexes of the CBAM Implementation Regulation.From end of January 2024 onwards, data on the carbon footprint must be reported via a template submitted to the CBAM Portal.From 2026 onwards, companies importing FeNi and/or NPI will have to purchase CBAM certificates to compensate for the carbon footprint of the imported goods. The amount of certificates that FeNi and NPI importers have to purchase will be gradually increased. In 2026, certificates for only 2.5% of the total carbon footprint of a product have to be surrendered. This will gradually be increased until 2034, when 100% of the carbon footprint has to be covered.FPX announced solid PFS results – key drivers are low strip ratio below 1, simple process plant driven by magnetic separation, ability to sell awaruite directly to market - After-tax NPV8% of $2.01 Billion and IRR of 18.6% at $8.75 /lb Ni 29-year mine life producing an average 59,100 tonnes per year of nickel Phased development approach, with expansion following the 3.7-year after-tax payback period Life-of-mine average C1 operating cost of $3.70/lb Ni ($8,150/t), assuming no byproduct credits LOM average annual pre-tax free cash flow of $578 million during operating years Strategic product flexibility, with a Base Case high-grade nickel concentrate (60% nickel) for direct feed to the stainless steel industry, plus a Refinery Option to produce battery-grade nickel sulphate At Canada Nickel, very keen to see this PFS – our Midlothian deposit looks like maybe a primary
awaruite deposit.Dreadnought – the interesting early stage where First Quantum earning into 51%. Mineralization (no assays) from 14-27 metres wide relatively shallow.